Women's Hockey vs. Quinnipiac Preview

by Jeremy Binckes

Warning: If any reader has a flashback to high school math, I apologize in advance.

The penalty kill for the Terriers has been the key to their season. More importantly, should I say, the number of penalties the Terriers have had to endure this season.

Allow me to elaborate.

First, allow us to start with the facts. Boston University is 1-5-2 on the season. They are 6^th in Hockey East with a 3.50 scoring defense. More importantly, they are dead last in overall (conference and non-conference) penalty killing within Hockey East. BU sports a 65.8% success rate, meaning that BU has allowed a goal 34.2% of the time that they have gone into the Sin Bin.

In real numbers, the Terriers have allowed 13 PPG to their opponents. Overall, the Terriers have allowed 28 goals in 8 games. Simple division: 46% of the goals that BU has allowed have come by the Power Play. That number will not help any team’s playoff chances.

Realistically, it’s impossible to assume a 100% success rate in the penalty kill, so let’s use last year’s rate of 85.4% penalties killed, and assume a flat 85% success rate this year (last year’s penalty kill was good for 3^rd in Hockey East).

Using the numbers of last year’s team as a basis for this year’s team, the 2007-08 Terriers have allowed seven more goals than last year’s squad would have on the Penalty Kill alone.

Removing those seven goals, and the Terrier’s team defense is now 2.62, and now stand at 5^th place in Hockey East, just a hair behind Vermont’s 2.56 goals allowed.

Now, I know what you’re going to say: small sample size against two very different sets of opponents. But don’t worry, that wasn’t my point anyway. I really want to know where BU could have eliminated those seven goals.

In all games in which BU has allowed at least 4 goals, they have lost or tied. The Terriers have also allowed at least 2 goals on the Power Play in each of these games, and had a PK rate of over .400. Most astonishingly was a 6-5 loss to Mercyhurst in which the Terriers had a 5-4 lead, then surrendered the game-tying and game-winning goals due to penalties.

Simply put, the Terriers need to stay out of the penalty box. When they do that, good things happen. A 2-1 loss (empty net goal excluded) to UNH at the Whit was a result of only 2 penalties, successfully killed. Similarly, only 2 penalties in the first period allowed the Terriers to go on the offensive against Union on Sunday. 2 goals were surrendered to North Dakota, and none of those goals came on Boston University’s 3 penalty kills.

On Wednesday’s game against Quinnipiac, the Terriers must make sure to stay out of the penalty box. And they have done well at times this season; 4 penalties seem to be the threshold. Should the Terriers be a skater down less than four times, the numbers reflect that they will have a good chance at keeping the Bobcats off the board for the most part. However, if more than 8 minutes are racked up, it may be a long night for BU netminding.

As always, tune into WTBU Sports at 6:40 pm for the pregame show on the alternate stream.